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TMC the metals Co Inc. (TMC)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 was a regulatory and financing inflection: TMC USA submitted the world’s first application for a commercial recovery permit (plus two exploration licenses) under the U.S. DSHMRA, and TMC closed a $37M registered direct offering to extend liquidity while pursuing the U.S. permitting path .
  • Reported net loss was $20.6M ($0.06/share), improving YoY from $25.2M ($0.08/share); cash used in operations was $9.3M as the company trimmed environmental and process development spend versus Campaign 8 costs last year .
  • Liquidity at March 31 stood at ~$43.8M (cash $2.3M) and rose to ~$81M pro forma after the $37M offering, supporting working capital through anticipated NOAA review milestones; ERAS/Barron facility increased to $44M and Allseas’ $25M affiliate facility was terminated with no amounts outstanding .
  • Management expects NOAA “substantial compliance” (exploration) and “completeness” (commercial recovery) determinations this quarter and the PFS next quarter (Q3 2025), laying groundwork for a clearer permitting timeline and valuation read-through beyond NORI‑D .
  • Key catalysts: formal NOAA review milestones, completion of the PFS, and U.S. policy follow-through after the April 24 executive order directing expedited seabed permitting and potential offtake/finance tools .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Executed strategic pivot to U.S. permitting: TMC USA filed the first-ever commercial recovery application under DSHMRA ahead of schedule; management sees clearer, enforceable regulatory path versus ISA uncertainty .
  • Strengthened balance sheet: $37M registered direct offering at $3.00/share with $4.50 warrants; liquidity increased pro forma to ~$81M, viewed as sufficient to get past expected review of the commercial recovery permit .
  • Onshore processing progress: PAMCO smelted 450t calcine into 35t NiCuCo alloy and 320t Mn silicate, demonstrating scale and informing definitive agreements; site visit hosted for analysts and industry participants .

What Went Wrong

  • Still pre-revenue and loss-making: Q1 net loss of $20.6M and operating loss of $18.0M; G&A rose to $8.5M on higher share-based comp even as exploration/evaluation spend fell YoY .
  • ISA pathway uncertainty persists: Prior plan to submit NORI exploitation application in June shifted; management now prioritizes NOAA and confirmed NORI will not submit to ISA in June 2025 .
  • Accounts payable remain elevated: AP and accrued liabilities of $45.2M at March 31; short-term debt ~$10.0M, reinforcing the need for disciplined cash management and partner settlement strategies .

Financial Results

Quarterly Financials Snapshot

Metric ($USD)Q3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Net Loss ($MM)$20.5 $16.1 $20.6
Diluted EPS ($)$0.06 $0.05 $0.06
Exploration & Evaluation ($MM)$11.8 $8.3 $9.5
G&A ($MM)$8.1 $8.0 $8.5
Cash Used in Operations ($MM)$5.7 $13.8 $9.3
Liquidity (Cash + Facilities) ($MM)~$63 ~$43 ~$43.8

Notes:

  • Pro forma liquidity post $37M offering in May 2025: ~$81MM .
  • Revenue and margins not reported (development-stage; pre-commercial) in these periods .

Balance Sheet & Cash KPIs

KPI ($USD)Q4 2024Q1 2025
Cash and Equivalents ($MM)$3.48 $2.35
Short-term Debt ($MM)$11.78 $9.98
AP & Accrued Liabilities ($MM)$42.75 $45.25
Warrants Liability ($MM)$0.91 $1.35
Total Assets ($MM)$63.00 $64.49
Total Liabilities ($MM)$80.12 $81.25
Total Equity ($MM)($17.12) ($16.77)
Weighted Avg Shares (basic/diluted)N/A (not disclosed quarterly)345,346,393

Actual vs Consensus (S&P Global)

MetricQ1 2025 ActualQ1 2025 Consensus (S&P Global)
Diluted EPS ($)($0.06) N/A*
Revenue ($MM)Not reported N/A*
EBITDA ($MM)Not reported N/A*

Values retrieved from S&P Global; consensus appears unavailable for TMC at this time.*

Segment breakdown

  • Not applicable: TMC is pre-revenue with no reported operating segments in these disclosures .

Additional Q1 metrics and financing details

  • ERAS/Barron facility increased to $44M (availability $41.5M at quarter-end); Allseas $25M affiliate facility terminated; $7.5M Allseas working capital loan maturity extended to September 2025 .
  • Registered Direct Offering: 12.3M shares at $3.00/share; Class C warrants at $4.50 with mandatory exercise if stock >$7.00 for 20 consecutive days .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Permitting Pathway2025Submit NORI exploitation application to ISA on June 27, 2025 Pivot to U.S. DSHMRA; TMC USA applications submitted April 29; expect NOAA “substantial compliance” (30 days) and “completeness” (60 days) determinations this quarter Shifted to U.S. permitting
PFS Timing1H 2025PFS expected before/around mid‑year aligned with applications PFS completion next quarter (Q3 2025) Deferred by ~one quarter
Liquidity Sufficiency2025~$43M liquidity sufficient for ~12 months ~$43.8M liquidity at Q1 plus $37M offering; “more than sufficient” to get past expected permit review Strengthened
Allseas Facilities2025$25M affiliate facility undrawn $25M affiliate facility terminated; $7.5M WC loan extended to Sep 2025 Terminated/extended
Hidden Gem Vessel2024–2025Capex deferred until ISA code/approval or non‑dilutive financing Accelerate to “get boat on the water” sooner at lower tonnage for speed Operational approach updated

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 & Q4 2024)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
Regulatory PathPlan to submit NORI application; ISA delays; exploring alternatives Filed U.S. applications; NOAA process described; NORI not submitting to ISA in June Strong pivot to U.S. pathway
Financing$17.5M RDO; credit facility upsized $37M RDO at $3.00; pro forma liquidity ~$81M Liquidity improved
Processing (PAMCO)Ongoing trials; progress toward definitive agreements 450t calcine processed; alloy/silicate produced; industry site visit Technical validation advancing
Vessel/Production PlanCapex deferral pending ISA clarity Prioritizing earlier ops at lower tonnage; Allseas supportive; new CIOTO onboard Execution urgency increased
U.S. Policy SupportAnticipated momentum post‑election April 24 executive order for expedited permitting, offtake/finance tools Positive policy backdrop
PFS & ResourcePFS targeted before apps; valuation beyond NORI‑D teased PFS Q3; broader valuation read‑through planned Near‑term deliverable

Management Commentary

  • “We believe that the one thing previously holding back our stock price was the lack of a clear regulatory pathway. And we believe we now have it… The equity round just announced is more than sufficient to get us past the expected review process on a commercial recovery permit.” — CEO Gerard Barron .
  • “Our PFS will be completed next quarter for the commercial recovery area… we intend to provide more clarity on the potential valuation across our total estimated resource, well beyond NORI‑D.” — CEO Gerard Barron .
  • “PAMCO successfully smelted 450 tonnes of calcine into 35 tonnes of NiCuCo alloy and 320 tonnes of Mn silicate products… demonstrating the process at scale.” — Press Release .
  • “TMC USA submitted the first-ever application for a commercial recovery permit and applications for two exploration licenses under DSHMRA.” — Press Release .
  • “Total liquidity of approximately $43.8 million at March 31, 2025… Net loss of $20.6 million and net loss per share of $0.06 for the quarter.” — Press Release .

Q&A Highlights

  • NOAA area selection: Management confirmed complementary ground not claimed by any sovereign, avoiding areas of particular environmental interest; specifics to follow post initial NOAA review for commercial sensitivity .
  • Permitting timelines: Expect initial 30/60‑day determinations soon; management is in regular contact with NOAA and sees “a lot of excitement inside that department” .
  • Downstream/refining: Evaluating U.S. processing options with “patriot capital providers”; balancing capital‑light near‑term approach with longer‑term U.S. refining goals .
  • U.S. government tools: Actively engaging on offtake/rights of first refusal and financing via DFC/Ex‑Im; pushing to move from theory to signed commitments .
  • ISA plan: NORI no longer planning to submit an ISA application in June; TMC will maintain ISA exploration contracts in compliance while pursuing U.S. permits .
  • Vessel strategy: Accelerate timelines—get Hidden Gem operating sooner at economic tonnage rather than waiting for higher throughput upgrades .

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for EPS, revenue, and EBITDA appears unavailable for Q1 2025; no comparable street figures to benchmark reported results. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Where estimates may need to adjust: As permitting milestones and PFS details firm up, coverage may expand and models may incorporate timelines, initial throughput/tonnage, financing structure, and royalty assumptions associated with the U.S. path .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Regulatory clarity is improving: U.S. applications filed under DSHMRA with NOAA determinations expected this quarter, representing a credible, enforceable path to commercial recovery .
  • Liquidity extended: $37M offering lifts pro forma liquidity to ~$81M, which management says is sufficient to carry the company through expected permit review .
  • Near-term deliverables: PFS slated for Q3 2025 with valuation read‑through beyond NORI‑D; watch for step‑by‑step permitting timeline disclosures .
  • Technical progress de‑risks onshore: PAMCO campaign produced NiCuCo alloy and Mn silicate at scale, supporting definitive processing agreements .
  • Strategy updated: Shift from ISA to U.S. permitting; NORI not submitting in June, but ISA exploration contracts maintained in compliance .
  • Financing/partners: ERAS/Barron facility increased to $44M; Allseas affiliate facility terminated; maturity of $7.5M Allseas WC loan extended, indicating supportive capital partners .
  • Policy tailwinds: April 24 executive order directs expedited permitting and potential offtake/finance support, a potential catalyst for the permitting schedule and downstream investment .